As Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections, the growing influence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in Northern Nigeria remains a topic of vibrant discussion among activists, youth leaders, and political analysts.
Political activist Usman Okai-Austin emphasized that Tinubu remains politically strong in the North due to his expansive alliances and collaborations with governors and ministries across much of the region. He highlighted that apart from a few states like Bauchi, Taraba, Plateau, Zamfara, and Kano, most of Northern Nigeria is controlled or influenced by Tinubu’s party, the APC. Okai-Austin warned that unless the opposition unites effectively, defeating Tinubu in the North would be challenging.
Conversely, political analyst Mahdi Shehu contended that the North is far from unified, arguing that Tinubu’s rise has deepened existing divisions. He criticized the silence of northern elders and complacency among politicians more focused on personal gain than collective interests. Shehu pointed out that voters in the North are increasingly motivated by immediate economic incentives rather than long-term regional solidarity and political principles.
Shehu also noted that the 2023 presidential election showcased both Tinubu’s ability to garner northern votes and the region’s internal fracturing. The emerging leadership of regional political figures and calls for more localized representation further complicate Tinubu’s influence.
Northern leaders such as those in the Northern Governors’ Forum have emphasized fair power-sharing arrangements, which could pose challenges to Tinubu’s re-election bid if not adequately addressed.
Economic and security issues continue to affect Northern voters, especially those related to insurgency and banditry, with some criticism directed at Tinubu’s administration for its handling of these challenges.
The perspectives highlight a complex political landscape where Tinubu’s influence is significant but contested, with voter priorities evolving amid socio-economic challenges.
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