Southampton have lost each of their last six Premier League games and the market has strongly sided with Thomas Tuchel’s boys here, who have picked up 13 points from his first five Premier League games in charge.


Burnley vs West Bromwich Albion, Saturday 3pm.

The market has sided with a pretty low goal-line for this one based upon these two being two of the lowest-scoring teams in the Premier League. However, of late, the attacking processes on show from both are trending in the right direction. That makes me want to back goals.

In three matches against teams in the bottom half under Sam Allardyce, the Baggies have scored six goals with an expected goal figure of 4.89 backing that improving attacking process up. Plus, they created the better chances in their 1-1 draw with Manchester United, even winning the xG battle.

Meanwhile, Burnley have netted five in their last three games vs teams holding a bottom half position with an xG figure of 4.12 produced. Both teams seem confident in the way they attack and with West Brom really requiring maximum points in this one. o

In terms of an outright prediction, I’m happy to side with Burnley, who did us a favour last weekend strolling past Crystal Palace, showcasing their ability at winning matches against similarly ranked teams.


Liverpool vs Everton, Saturday 5.30pm.

Sky Sports Main Event

This is where Liverpool should come roaring back to form, isn’t it?

They threatened it last weekend in the first 70 minutes against Leicester but hit the implosion button as individual mistakes cost them points yet again. Liverpool have made the most errors leading to goals (8) this season and rank second for most errors leading to shots (13). I still believe the process of this Liverpool team remains strong but it’s a case of errors and a significant drop in conversion rate to blame for a quite horrendous run of results.

Talking of conversion rate, Everton have the best shot conversion rate (15.56 per cent) in the Premier League and the third best shooting accuracy (53.4 per cent). This explains how they’ve managed to get on the coattails of Liverpool despite just a goal difference of +2 this season.

That statistic can be looked at two ways, but I’m very much happy to file it under the unsustainable category. Liverpool should have too much firepower with Everton close to running on empty having been tasked with playing four games in 10 days.

This is officially the dirtiest fixture in Premier League history, with 22 red cards in 57 Premier League meetings and there might be significant needle even without fans considering the prolonged fallout from Jordan Pickford’s challenge on Virgil van Dijk in a spicy 2-2 draw at Goodison Park.

I was interested in attacking the booking points lines as Liverpool have picked up 17 cards in their last nine games – a big upturn from their usual numbers. In comparison, before that they had received just 12 cards in 19 games.

Thiago will be charging around in usual reckless fashion in midfield, especially in a derby. No player has made more fouls than him in 2021 in the Premier League (22) .